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Three studies, published in 2013, 2015, 2019 all estimated a national, upper-bound limit for smuggling (or tax evasion and avoidance or non-compliance) at 21%.[69] Much of the related literature employs empirical models of representative consumer demand, including such variables as cigarette price, tourism, income, race, religious affiliation and other demographic variables, in addition to the primary variables of interest: tax (or price) differentials